Hello to all of you.
I know that some of you may be regular readers or people who just pop in. Others, may be just poking through the internet and stumbling across me and my business. You may be a friend or a client, both, or perhaps you want to be a client, (or a friend).
Regardless, I've just been given the potential, (that's potential not promise), of an extraordinary opportunity from my friends over at Pie Town Productions. They contacted me, just like many clients would, because they found me on the internet. Interestingly enough, they liked me enough to propose that I might have some interest in participating in a little show called House Hunters on HGTV.
If you've never seen the show the premise is pretty simple: The buyer and their Realtor, (in this case ME), identify their top 3 picks of homes they are seriously considering. They weigh the pros and cons of each home and, the buyer makes a final decsion. The whole time they are covering the process and the end result is you the buyer, going from your old place to your wonderful new place.
Of course, not everyone is ready to get in front of the camera. So if any of you are seriously looking for a home in the Chicago area, city or suburbs, and feel you'll be making this purchase within the next 6 months, (the sooner the better for TV consideration), then by all means drop me a line and I'll give you the details on how it all works.
If you want to see the fun, check out House Hunters at http://www.hgtv.com/hgtv/shows_hnt
Lots of fun for everyone!!
Happy house hunting.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Could we be looking at an urban exodus in Chicago?
It seems like the writing is on the wall when it comes to real estate in Chicago, I wonder if urban dwellers actually see it.
In Cook County and Chicago we are facing some serious issues with county and city government. With two large political machines in charge, Todd Stroger in county government who managed to ride on his daddy's coat tails to a victory. Todd Stroger, who has consistently upheld the wasteful patronage that his father instituted over decades of waste and corruption. And the Daley machine in the city of Chicago: both Daley and Stroger seem poised to impose some of the most brutal tax hikes in Cook County or Chicago history.
There's speculation on many levels as to why this is. Many within Cook County believe that Mr. Stroger is making room for more patronage programs hiring friends and family members into do nothing jobs at high salaries; all on the backs of the taxpayers. As for Mayor Daley, who has been untouchable as far as scandal is concerned, I think the prevailing opinion of his motives are pretty transparent. Mr. Daley really wants Chicago to host the summer Olympic games. He's spent tons of time and taxpayer money, (on top of private money), to woo the Olympic committee in an attempt to get Chicago anointed. But he has a way to go and he's starting to look toward the taxpayers for help.
There is no doubt that Daley has done a lot of good. Unlike his county counterpart who has accomplished nothing more than being the heir apparent to wasteful patronage, the mayor has done a lot to beautify, improve and strengthen the city of Chicago. At least, on the surface, the improvements are apparent.
But if you peel back the layers of the onion, many people, particularly property owners within the city of Chicago, are becomming increasingly disenchanted. One of the most problematic issues pertains to Chicago public schools. Many people who live in the city, and this is by their own testimony, have related to me that despite the cost of their property, (in many cases, I'm talking about people who have paid 600k up to well over 1million for a home), the city has been unable to produce a satisfactory public school in their area; despite their enormous tax bills.
For many of these people, they have opted for pricey private schools. I even spoke to one gentleman recently who has 2 children, both of whom go to the British School in Chicago, and for whom he pays approximately $20k per year each for tuition. His personal property tax bill is already in the high teen yet, for that money, he doesn't feel confident in the public services this money is supposed to provide so, as a result, he pays over $40 thousand dollars per year for his young children to attend school. All, ostensibly, for the "privilege" of residing in the city of Chicago. So when people like this see that the county wants more money; that the city wants more money; they begin to wonder if it is really worth it to continue to reside in either.
The city of Chicago and Cook county are on a very precarious, very slippery slope in regard to their opressive taxation. For years, there has been a "natural" cycle of people flowing into the city and then, conversely, flowing out of the city. I believe these cycles are generally every 5-15 years. This was a phenomenon that was, at one time, referred to as "white flight" where, theorhetically, "white" people left a city because of encroachment of too much integration in their areas. In this case, I can see the flight on the horizon but it has absolutely nothing to do with color. If Mr. Stroger and Mr. Daley continue to levy increasingly oppressive taxes, this flight will be strictly economic. It will, without a doubt, either lead to a massive, Boston Tea Party like revolt, or will inspire a quiet revolution. A revolution that will slowly drain Chicago and its Mother county of taxpayers and will leave a legacy for years to come.
People feel helpless. People don't feel their interests are being fully represented. People are sick of being robbed of their hard earned money.
And people are finding that there is little that the city offers that they can't find in many suburban areas. People are discovering they can find reasonable homes with good schools that are supported by fair local taxes in counties beyond Cook county. People are discovering that, no matter what color they may be, or what their personal circumstances are, a better quality of life often lies within 20 or 25 miles of the city, out of the reach of greedy king Richard and prince Todd.
If this trend continues, the people will leave the city. The jobs will relocate to the suburbs as well because they'll also have more incentive to do so and, if I'm right, Mr. Daley will be sitting by himself with his Olympic torch and Mr. Stroger won't have the money to hire any more of his friends and relatives. The people, and the money, will be gone.
The leaders in both city and county government need to take heed. For if they continue on this paty, we could be looking at a massive urban exodus.
There has to be a better way if Chicago and Cook county are going to survive.
Increasing taxes is not the answer.
In Cook County and Chicago we are facing some serious issues with county and city government. With two large political machines in charge, Todd Stroger in county government who managed to ride on his daddy's coat tails to a victory. Todd Stroger, who has consistently upheld the wasteful patronage that his father instituted over decades of waste and corruption. And the Daley machine in the city of Chicago: both Daley and Stroger seem poised to impose some of the most brutal tax hikes in Cook County or Chicago history.
There's speculation on many levels as to why this is. Many within Cook County believe that Mr. Stroger is making room for more patronage programs hiring friends and family members into do nothing jobs at high salaries; all on the backs of the taxpayers. As for Mayor Daley, who has been untouchable as far as scandal is concerned, I think the prevailing opinion of his motives are pretty transparent. Mr. Daley really wants Chicago to host the summer Olympic games. He's spent tons of time and taxpayer money, (on top of private money), to woo the Olympic committee in an attempt to get Chicago anointed. But he has a way to go and he's starting to look toward the taxpayers for help.
There is no doubt that Daley has done a lot of good. Unlike his county counterpart who has accomplished nothing more than being the heir apparent to wasteful patronage, the mayor has done a lot to beautify, improve and strengthen the city of Chicago. At least, on the surface, the improvements are apparent.
But if you peel back the layers of the onion, many people, particularly property owners within the city of Chicago, are becomming increasingly disenchanted. One of the most problematic issues pertains to Chicago public schools. Many people who live in the city, and this is by their own testimony, have related to me that despite the cost of their property, (in many cases, I'm talking about people who have paid 600k up to well over 1million for a home), the city has been unable to produce a satisfactory public school in their area; despite their enormous tax bills.
For many of these people, they have opted for pricey private schools. I even spoke to one gentleman recently who has 2 children, both of whom go to the British School in Chicago, and for whom he pays approximately $20k per year each for tuition. His personal property tax bill is already in the high teen yet, for that money, he doesn't feel confident in the public services this money is supposed to provide so, as a result, he pays over $40 thousand dollars per year for his young children to attend school. All, ostensibly, for the "privilege" of residing in the city of Chicago. So when people like this see that the county wants more money; that the city wants more money; they begin to wonder if it is really worth it to continue to reside in either.
The city of Chicago and Cook county are on a very precarious, very slippery slope in regard to their opressive taxation. For years, there has been a "natural" cycle of people flowing into the city and then, conversely, flowing out of the city. I believe these cycles are generally every 5-15 years. This was a phenomenon that was, at one time, referred to as "white flight" where, theorhetically, "white" people left a city because of encroachment of too much integration in their areas. In this case, I can see the flight on the horizon but it has absolutely nothing to do with color. If Mr. Stroger and Mr. Daley continue to levy increasingly oppressive taxes, this flight will be strictly economic. It will, without a doubt, either lead to a massive, Boston Tea Party like revolt, or will inspire a quiet revolution. A revolution that will slowly drain Chicago and its Mother county of taxpayers and will leave a legacy for years to come.
People feel helpless. People don't feel their interests are being fully represented. People are sick of being robbed of their hard earned money.
And people are finding that there is little that the city offers that they can't find in many suburban areas. People are discovering they can find reasonable homes with good schools that are supported by fair local taxes in counties beyond Cook county. People are discovering that, no matter what color they may be, or what their personal circumstances are, a better quality of life often lies within 20 or 25 miles of the city, out of the reach of greedy king Richard and prince Todd.
If this trend continues, the people will leave the city. The jobs will relocate to the suburbs as well because they'll also have more incentive to do so and, if I'm right, Mr. Daley will be sitting by himself with his Olympic torch and Mr. Stroger won't have the money to hire any more of his friends and relatives. The people, and the money, will be gone.
The leaders in both city and county government need to take heed. For if they continue on this paty, we could be looking at a massive urban exodus.
There has to be a better way if Chicago and Cook county are going to survive.
Increasing taxes is not the answer.
Banks tightening restrictions on lending
The real estate business everywhere in the United States has become a tragic mess. Mortgage lenders are filing for bankruptcy or begging for the federal government to bail them out. News of record breaking foreclosure rates are permeating the media. Just yesterday, I even heard that a builder, Neumann Homes is filing for bankruptcy. Is there any wonder why the real estate buyers seem to be heading for the hills or searching for cover?
Fear of real estate has taken us over, but there seems to be no real explanation. Yes, foreclosures are up; yes lenders are tightening their restrictions on credit and looking for larger down payments; yes there is a lot of negative stuff out there. I believe the media has overblown things and, as far as real estate goes, is actually causing an unnatural knee jerk reaction in the public.
Let's look at things from less of a fear mongering point of view and more of an opportunistic point of view. The interest rates are still at near historic lows. It appears that the federal reserve will be lowering rates again in an answer to the current "crisis" in the housing market. Housing prices have moderated and short sales and pre-foreclosures are presenting even greater opportunities for buyers. The job market is still very robust. As a reaction to people fleeing toward rentals, landlords are now commanding some of the highest rents in history, making it more sensible to buy than ever. So what is stopping people from buying?
Fear.
Don't be afraid of real estate people! This has happened before and will, in all likelihood happen again in the future but if you aren't a flipper, or someone who only has the very short term picture in mind, then you should seriously re-evaluate your position on making a purchase.
The banks are even getting wise and starting to help out. Take for example my friends at e-loan. I trust very few lenders these days. Ask me personally and I'll only give you a handful of reccomendations, (because I want my deals to close and if you are a buyer so do you). But e-loan has come up with a program for people on the bubble; people who want to buy but whose credit is just short of what they need to commence a transaction.
So what is e-loan doing differently? They are offerring in house credit counselling that will help you improve your credit scorese and get you the loan and the home that you want. It's a bit of a pilot program and I'm one of the few Realtors or real estate agents out there who has been made aware of it but I want to shout it from the rooftops.
If your credit scores are just short of the mark, at least there's a bank out there that will help get you to where you need to be. No costs or gimmicks, just some guidance and help to get you to your real estate goals.
I'm hoping other lenders will follow suit.
The smart people will see this as an opportunity. This market is currently full of opportunities but, as with any opportunity, the window is likely small.
I'm reccommending to anyone who is interested in real estate either as an investment, as their first entry into the market, or as an improvement to their current situation: this is a buying opportunity.
If you have any more questions, please ask me, e-mail me, or click on one of the links on my sidebar.
I'm happy to help you and will be happy to answer any of your real estate questions.
You're trusted Realtor in the Chicago area.
Rick
Fear of real estate has taken us over, but there seems to be no real explanation. Yes, foreclosures are up; yes lenders are tightening their restrictions on credit and looking for larger down payments; yes there is a lot of negative stuff out there. I believe the media has overblown things and, as far as real estate goes, is actually causing an unnatural knee jerk reaction in the public.
Let's look at things from less of a fear mongering point of view and more of an opportunistic point of view. The interest rates are still at near historic lows. It appears that the federal reserve will be lowering rates again in an answer to the current "crisis" in the housing market. Housing prices have moderated and short sales and pre-foreclosures are presenting even greater opportunities for buyers. The job market is still very robust. As a reaction to people fleeing toward rentals, landlords are now commanding some of the highest rents in history, making it more sensible to buy than ever. So what is stopping people from buying?
Fear.
Don't be afraid of real estate people! This has happened before and will, in all likelihood happen again in the future but if you aren't a flipper, or someone who only has the very short term picture in mind, then you should seriously re-evaluate your position on making a purchase.
The banks are even getting wise and starting to help out. Take for example my friends at e-loan. I trust very few lenders these days. Ask me personally and I'll only give you a handful of reccomendations, (because I want my deals to close and if you are a buyer so do you). But e-loan has come up with a program for people on the bubble; people who want to buy but whose credit is just short of what they need to commence a transaction.
So what is e-loan doing differently? They are offerring in house credit counselling that will help you improve your credit scorese and get you the loan and the home that you want. It's a bit of a pilot program and I'm one of the few Realtors or real estate agents out there who has been made aware of it but I want to shout it from the rooftops.
If your credit scores are just short of the mark, at least there's a bank out there that will help get you to where you need to be. No costs or gimmicks, just some guidance and help to get you to your real estate goals.
I'm hoping other lenders will follow suit.
The smart people will see this as an opportunity. This market is currently full of opportunities but, as with any opportunity, the window is likely small.
I'm reccommending to anyone who is interested in real estate either as an investment, as their first entry into the market, or as an improvement to their current situation: this is a buying opportunity.
If you have any more questions, please ask me, e-mail me, or click on one of the links on my sidebar.
I'm happy to help you and will be happy to answer any of your real estate questions.
You're trusted Realtor in the Chicago area.
Rick
Sunday, October 07, 2007
My Fall/Winter 2007 Market Predictions
So depending on who you listen to, and there are many opinions out there; predictions for real estate for the remainder of the year are a mixed bag at best.
You have some people predicting further gloom and doom. The spectre of increasing foreclosures and further fallout from the sub prime mortgage market has buyers wary. Certainly concerns over the falling value of the American dollar as well as concerns about inflation and growing concerns about more escalation in the Middle East spurs even more concerns about what is going to happen.
But let's face reality people. If the housing market doesn't pick back up, we could very well see ourselves on the way to an economic nightmare.
Of course, landlords are happy. Based on some current statistics, occupancy rates are in the mid to high 90 percentile in rental properties, (and for any of you who didn't believe me when I told you to buy multi-unit flats over the last several years then, there you go!); landlords, as a result, have been able to hike rents to their highest levels in years. So even though the rental prices are increasing at a pace where, once again, it makes more sense to buy, and even though rates are still low and over inflated real estate prices are receding; people still aren't buying houses.
WHY?
Where are all the buyers?
I believe they are out there and I believe they are all waiting for something, some big sign that it is OK to come out. Just like in the Wizard of Oz when the Munchkins realize the witch is dead, the fearful little people are hiding out looking for their Dorothy.
Or, perhaps home buyers are more savvy than anyone thinks. For what it's worth, here are my predictions:
I believe that the demand has not shriveled up and blown away. On the contrary, I believe there is a lot of pent up demand out there and plenty of people who qualify for loans despite the tightening of lending restrictions. Additionally, I think these people will benefit from the government coming in and expanding FHA backed loans and this will go a long way to stabilize the market long term.
The fact is that there is enough inventory out there that these buyers are waiting. They are patient. They do their research. And the smartest ones are waiting for the Winter to make their move. Particularly in states like Illinois where there can be harsh weather conditions that keep buyers away; the smart buyers are looking to find the wounded and limping sellers in the toughest season and it will be, at that point, the deals will start to happen. Sellers will make concessions they would never have dreamed of a year or two ago and the buyers will benefit from all of the market instabilities. I believe there will be a short run up in the Winter market that will lead to a roaring comeback in the Spring. That's when the carpet baggers, or the fearful Munchkins if you will, recognize that there has been a divine sign from the risk takers and will take that as their cue to strike.
If they lower rates further at the next Fed meeting, then I'm confident we can expect a scenario like this.
The bottom line: If you are looking to buy a piece of property, this might be the time. Particularly if you are looking at this as more of a long term investment which is what really makes real estate a winner. The days of short term gains may be long gone but if you are looking for a home or an investment that you will be holding as part of a portfolio; I sincerely think that this is going to be one of the best opportunities we've seen in years and, quite possibly, for years to come.
Time will tell.
You have some people predicting further gloom and doom. The spectre of increasing foreclosures and further fallout from the sub prime mortgage market has buyers wary. Certainly concerns over the falling value of the American dollar as well as concerns about inflation and growing concerns about more escalation in the Middle East spurs even more concerns about what is going to happen.
But let's face reality people. If the housing market doesn't pick back up, we could very well see ourselves on the way to an economic nightmare.
Of course, landlords are happy. Based on some current statistics, occupancy rates are in the mid to high 90 percentile in rental properties, (and for any of you who didn't believe me when I told you to buy multi-unit flats over the last several years then, there you go!); landlords, as a result, have been able to hike rents to their highest levels in years. So even though the rental prices are increasing at a pace where, once again, it makes more sense to buy, and even though rates are still low and over inflated real estate prices are receding; people still aren't buying houses.
WHY?
Where are all the buyers?
I believe they are out there and I believe they are all waiting for something, some big sign that it is OK to come out. Just like in the Wizard of Oz when the Munchkins realize the witch is dead, the fearful little people are hiding out looking for their Dorothy.
Or, perhaps home buyers are more savvy than anyone thinks. For what it's worth, here are my predictions:
I believe that the demand has not shriveled up and blown away. On the contrary, I believe there is a lot of pent up demand out there and plenty of people who qualify for loans despite the tightening of lending restrictions. Additionally, I think these people will benefit from the government coming in and expanding FHA backed loans and this will go a long way to stabilize the market long term.
The fact is that there is enough inventory out there that these buyers are waiting. They are patient. They do their research. And the smartest ones are waiting for the Winter to make their move. Particularly in states like Illinois where there can be harsh weather conditions that keep buyers away; the smart buyers are looking to find the wounded and limping sellers in the toughest season and it will be, at that point, the deals will start to happen. Sellers will make concessions they would never have dreamed of a year or two ago and the buyers will benefit from all of the market instabilities. I believe there will be a short run up in the Winter market that will lead to a roaring comeback in the Spring. That's when the carpet baggers, or the fearful Munchkins if you will, recognize that there has been a divine sign from the risk takers and will take that as their cue to strike.
If they lower rates further at the next Fed meeting, then I'm confident we can expect a scenario like this.
The bottom line: If you are looking to buy a piece of property, this might be the time. Particularly if you are looking at this as more of a long term investment which is what really makes real estate a winner. The days of short term gains may be long gone but if you are looking for a home or an investment that you will be holding as part of a portfolio; I sincerely think that this is going to be one of the best opportunities we've seen in years and, quite possibly, for years to come.
Time will tell.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
